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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth British prime minister to take up the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”